DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          05/02 07:41

   Cotton Tries to Stand Up Thursday 

   The cotton market is higher Thursday because of its super-oversold 
conditions and a less-than-hawkish Federal Reserve statement is allowing a 
bullish blood flow. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is higher Thursday because of its super-oversold 
conditions and a less-than-hawkish Federal Reserve statement is allowing a 
bullish blood flow. Wednesday saw July cotton with another triple-digit 
collapse, crowning a bearish break encompassing some 1,735 points since April 
1. 

   USDA issued its weekly Export Sales and Shipments report Thursday morning, 
with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 97,400 running bales (RB) for 2023/2024 were 
down 45% from the previous week and 20% from the prior four-week average. 
Increases primarily for Vietnam (29,600 RB, including 1,100 RB switched from 
South Korea and 400 RB switched from Japan), Pakistan (17,400 RB), China 
(15,000 RB, including decreases of 3,600 RB), India (7,100 RB, including 
decreases of 100 RB), and Bangladesh (6,300 RB), were offset by reductions for 
South Korea (1,100 RB) and Mexico (600 RB).

   "Net sales of 34,400 RB for 2024/2025 primarily for Vietnam (9,200 RB), 
Turkey (7,500 RB), Mexico (5,400 RB), Pakistan (4,400 RB), and Ecuador (4,400 
RB), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (4,000 RB).

   "Exports of 180,000 RB were down 31% from the previous week and 39% from the 
prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (56,100 RB), 
Pakistan (30,200 RB), Turkey (25,400 RB), Vietnam (16,100 RB), and Mexico 
(7,600 RB).

   "Net sales of Pima totaling 4,600 RB for 2023/2024 were down 63% from the 
previous week and 25% from the prior four-week average. Increases were reported 
for Vietnam (1,800 RB), China (1,500 RB), India (600 RB, including decreases of 
800 RB), Colombia (500 RB), and Pakistan (200 RB).

   "Exports of 4,600 RB were down 55% from the previous week and 51% from the 
prior four-week average. The destinations were India (1,900 RB), China (1,700 
RB), Pakistan (600 RB), Thailand (200 RB), and Colombia (200 RB)."

   There were zero notices Thursday against the spot May contract. Thus far 
some 411 notices have been tendered against spot May. That contract expires May 
8.

   Friday, the Labor Department will issue its monthly jobs report. 
Expectations call for 243,000 new non-farm payrolls versus the previous number 
of 303,000. That report will be out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

   For Thursday, chart support for July cotton stands at 76.00 cents and 75.25 
cents, with 79.90 and 80.50 as resistance. Thursday morning's estimated volume 
stands at 5,485 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.